Is China in Recession? 2024 Official GDP Data Paints a Mixed Picture

（This article has been updated on Jan.24, 2025 to make the text concise and cohesive)

China’s latest economic data suggests a more optimistic view of its growth trajectory, though uncertainty remains.

Official GDP figures show that the world’s second-largest economy grew by 5% in 2024, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the last quarter. The fourth-quarter GDP growth of 5.4% marked a significant boost compared to earlier in the year. By contrast, the second quarter saw a disappointing 4.7% growth, while the third quarter exceeded expectations with a 4.6% rise, according to data from Caixin.

However, the data lacks a breakdown of which sectors are driving this growth. The travel industry, buoyed by year-end celebrations and the upcoming Spring Festival, is likely playing a role, with increased consumption and transportation demand.

Despite the positive fourth-quarter results, it remains unclear whether this uptick is a temporary rebound or a sign of stronger momentum heading into 2025.

Outside of China, perspectives on the country’s economic health are more cautious. During the second day of U.S. Senate confirmation hearings, Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent stated that China is in a recession. He also emphasized that the Chinese economy is “unbalanced” and accused Beijing of “exporting its way out” of the slowdown.

Indeed, China's exports fell by 3.1% in June (after seasonal adjustments), and imports dropped by 6.8%. These figures point to weak global demand for Chinese goods and weaker domestic demand as well.

The strong GDP growth in the last quarter could partly be driven by stockpiling and a rush to import goods before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports, suggesting that the growth may be a short-term boost rather than a sustainable trend.